East African Regional Workshop on Drought Monitoring and Forecasting
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 to Thursday, October 10, 2019
UNECA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Drought Forecasting for East Africa


Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has large and important impacts on livelihoods, economies and ecosystems across East Africa. Reducing the impacts of droughts requires a range of actions, including the development and use of early warning systems as part of an integrated drought mitigation plan. Early warning systems consist of tools for monitoring and forecasting of evolving drought conditions and their impacts, and the timely provision of this information to government and stakeholders in actionable forms. Early warning should also be accompanied by evaluations of drought risk that includes assessment of vulnerable populations and their coping capacities.

East African Capacity Building Workshop on Drought Monitoring and Forecasting

Current capacity for early warning in the region is focused on IGAD and EAC Regional countries, some of the regional institutions like Africa Climate Policy Centre, Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development and IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) that provides monitoring and forecasting for drought and assessments of drought related impacts (e.g. agricultural production), including contribution to consensus seasonal outlooks as part of the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF). National capability may then combine this with their own analysis to provide more targeted national outlooks and provision of this to stakeholders. There is a need to improve capacity across the region to provide more targeted and sector specific drought information, and in particular to draw from the wealth of information from state-of-the-art data sources, such as satellite remote sensing, models and information systems that provide real-time and forecast information.


A workshop is proposed to bring together national representative practitioners from across the region to learn and apply state-of-the-art methods for drought monitoring and forecasting. The training will be focused on using the African Flood and Drought Monitor, which is an online tool that brings together ground observations, hydrological and climate modelling and remote sensing to provide integrated drought monitoring and forecasting in support of risk analysis and early warning. The workshop will also serve to promote broader learning on drought risk management, and development of knowledge sharing networks.


Concept Note


The role of climate information and services in DRR - Frank Rutabingwa

Drought Forecasting for East Africa

Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) - Hydromet Needs and Opportunities - the  Nile Context - Azeb Mersha

The impact of 2011 drought in East Africa (border area between Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia)

High Resolution Flood and Drought Monitor (FDM) - Justin Sheffield

East Africa Drought And Forecasting Workshop - Assessing Meteorological drought in the Upper Blue Nile basin

The 1984 East African Drought The Risk, Impacts, and Opportunities

Drought occurrence Assessment Using AFDM online tool - A case of Ethiopia

Mapping Water Balance around  Lake Turkana 

Impact assessment of droughts to livelihoods in Rib catchment (upper Blue Nile), Ethiopia


Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting for Drought Early Warning and forecasting on other time scales

Drought Analyses - Extreme events Drought risk and impacts Drought definitions, types and mechanisms Drought indices Drought characteristics 

The Terrestrial Water Budget - importance, definitions, water budget across scales, residence time, seasonality, estimating the budget, limitations or errors

Introduction to Soil Moisture Remote Sensing - importance, definitions, measuring soil moisture, sensors, microwave retrievals methods, limitations, data products, SMAP

Drought Research at Princeton University and University of Southampton