Bujumbura 14 July 2017 (ECA): Despite the challenges that have affected Burundi over the last two years, its economy has been relatively resilient since the recession of 2015 Nevertheless, over the longer-term the country’s growth performance , has remained relatively subdued, due principally to the low productivity of the agriculture, on which 87 percent ofthe population rely.
This analysis has just been presented in Bujumbura, at the launch and discussions of Burundi country profile produced by the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), which analyses the country’s economic and social performance, with emphasis on recent developments following the socio-political crisis of 2015.
Speaking at the event, Ms Giovanie Biha, ECA Deputy Executive Secretary, stressed that the ECA country profiles provide periodic economic and social assessments with a view to achieving structural transformation and making concrete recommendations to governments and regional organizations. .
According to data fromnational authorities, Burundi's growth rate was -3.9 percent in 2015 but is expected to rise to 2% by 2017, confirming a gradual recovery. This relative resilience of the Burundian economy is principally due to fact that the economy relies mainly on subsistence agriculture, which is less vulnerable to external shocks. The construction, trade and tourism sectors were the most affected by the crisis.
The under-performance of the agricultural sector, on the other hand, is a long-term phenomenon, linked to low agricultural productivity and the impact of climate change. In 2016 alone, more than 50,000 people have been displaced in the country due to flooding.
The events of 2015 also affected international aid, which contracted sharply as a result the withdrawal of donor support. This decision also forced Burundi to significantly increase its level of domestic debt, and impacted negatively on the stock of international reserves, which reached its lowest level at the end of 2016 (1.4 months of imports) and
Mr. Andrew Mold, the Acting Director of the ECA Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa, said that Burundi's major challenge is the lack of structural transformation. The agricultural sector still accounts for nearly 40 percent of GDP and the levelof urbanization is one of the lowest in Africa (12 percent). At the same time, investment levels and inflows of foreign direct investment (less than 2 percent of GDP) are much lower than those in neighbouring countries.
On the social front, the consequences of the of 2015 crisis are likely to be felt in the longer term, as was the case for Madagascan crisis of 2008-9. The achievements of the period from 2005-2015 - marked by moderate but stable growth (4.5 percent on average) and notable social progress in the areas of health and education - could thus be reversed.
The recently released Demographic and Health Survey shows a number of improvements between 2010 and 2016 - for instance in terms of infant mortality and contraceptive prevalence. Nonetheless, the nutritional situation seems to be deteriorating. For example, the share of the population suffering from poor nutrition is estimated to have increased from 5 percent in April 2013 to 13 percent in March 2017. Burundi is also facing a severe malaria epidemic, with 3 million cases since the beginning of 2017.
Burundi’s country profile focuses on analysing the causes of low agricultural productivity. Agricultural production per capita has decreased by 28% since 1982. Yields are between 20 to 40 percent lower than in neighbouring countries. Erosion, heavy land pressure, the impact of climate change, land conflicts and the lack of access to modern farming inputs are the main obstacles to agricultural modernization. According to ECA, this modernization is necessary to reduce poverty and accelerate structural transformation.
For more information, you can download the Burundi Country Profile on:
https://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/uploaded-documents/CountryProfiles/2017/burundi_cp_eng.pdf
Issued by:
Office for Eastern Africa of the Economic Commission for Africa